Lumpur Sidoarjo may continue for 26 more years

The world's biggest and fastest growing mud volcano, Lusi sprang to life in May 2006, and it and may continue to spew hot mud for another 26 years, according to a new study. Lusi could expel the equivalent of 56,000 Olympic-size swimming pools of mud before it finally simmers down, say scientists from the U.K.'s Durham University.

Mud volcanoes, which can appear on land or underwater, form when underground layers of silt or clay become pressurized either by tectonic activity or by a buildup of hydrocarbon gases.

To calculate Lusi's future mud flow, the team observed water pressure in a borehole near the volcano and combined that data with knowledge of the rocks' properties and mudflow volumes since 2006.

"The calculation should enable a better assessment of the final impact of the disaster and gives the inhabitants of East Java an indication of how long they can expect to be affected by mud from the volcano," study leader Richard Davies said in a statement.

In the nearly five years since Lusi reawakened, villages have disappeared under the mud, which is 60 feet (18 meters) deep in places, according to a 2008 article in National Geographic magazine. Thirteen people have died and at least 10,000 families have been forced from their homes, according to the Durham University scientists. 

Meanwhile, trucks and backhoes work relentlessly to contain the damage, fortifying dikes against the 600,000 barrels of mud that continue to surge out each day.

The cause of Lusi's 2006 eruption is still disputed: Many blame the company Lapindo who were drilling for gas in the area. The same Durham University team released a report in 2007 that said the upwelling began when an exploratory gas well punched through a layer of rock 9,300 feet (2,800 meters) below the surface, allowing hot, high-pressure water to escape.

One online writer states: "Lapindo Brantas, an oil exploration company, was drilling a natural gas well when hot mud started flowing out of one of the wells. Efforts to plug the well only resulted in more and more surface connections leading to more and more mud flow. From the strata below the earth, hot mud and water at 60 °C, high in Hydrogen Sulphide and at great pressures, started spewing out. This flow of hot mud continues even after three years and now not from a few points, but from more than ninety points." 

Local media has continually reported the event, but the human cost is often highlighted more than the massive environmental impact. The latest report comes from the Humanitus Sidoarjo Fund on 17th February, which stated that a fifty meter section of retaining wall had begun to collapse. Apparently the Sidoarjo Mudflow Management Agency will be working with the state railway to ensure the nearby railway won't be affected by the situation. They didn't mention if they are working to minimise the impact on anything other than the railway.

Most recent satellite image of the disaster

Source: National Geographic, Humanitus Sidoarjo Fund, Brighthub.com, National University of Singapore.